Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test during China's Congress?

When North Korea carried out its last nuclear test on September 3, 2017, China's President Xi Jinping was preparing to host the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa at a summit meant to burnish his image as a global statesperson ahead of a critical Chinese Communist Party congress. Kim Jong Un, North Korea's leader, has accelerated the pace of his country's nuclear and missiles weapons development this year, personally overseeing the launch of hypersonic and intercontinental ballistic missiles, and enacting a new law that allows for preemptive atomic strikes if an imminent attack against North Korean strategic assets and its leadership is detected. Among North Korea watchers, there is now a sense of déjà vu as warnings of a seventh North Korean nuclear test intensify just as China's ruling Communist Party prepares for its five-yearly congress this month, where Xi is expected to be appointed to an unprecedented third term. "It has been expected that North Korea will try to refrain from provocations until the CCP Congress ends. That expectation has been shattered now with North Korea's Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile test," said Ellen Kim, senior fellow at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, referring to the missile over Japan. Analysts were also divided about whether and how China would respond in the event of a seventh North Korean nuclear test. Lee believes a North Korean nuclear test may be likely even earlier than the CCP Congress, perhaps around October 10, the anniversary of the founding of North Korea's Workers Party. "If Kim Jong Un does carry out a nuclear test around October 10, then the Chinese will be irritated. But they will move on. They have a more important event to hold. So North Korea's nuclear test and insult perhaps to China and to everyone else will be forgotten, there will be no repercussions," he said, noting that Beijing has failed to take action against North Korea despite a record number of weapons tests this year.