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Aug. 12, 2023, 12:30 p.m.
China's economy is showing signs of serious trouble — and the problems are still mounting
China's economy is showing signs of serious trouble — and the problems are still mounting
['China', 'year', 'Beijing', 'economy', 'trade']

China was supposed to see a strong rebound from the pandemic. Instead it's facing deflation, massive debt, and a wobbling housing market.

China's economy is showing signs of serious trouble — and the problems are still mounting

Deflation - the trend of prices falling throughout the economy - presents a particularly dangerous trajectory for China, which carries a massive amount of debt. "Deflation means the real value of debt goes up," David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute's China center, told Insider. The latest figures add to the anxiety that's already been swirling about what growth could look like for the rest of the year, and JPMorgan strategists cautioned that China risks a 1990s-style "Japanification" if policymakers don't address the housing market, financial imbalances, and aging demographics. China was able to skirt deflation in 2009 and 2012 on the heels of the global financial crisis, but today's housing market complicates policymakers' current battle. Home transaction volumes across 330 cities in China cratered 19.2% year-over-year in June, according to a Beike Research Institute study, and values have dropped 23.4%. The slump helps explain China's weak second-quarter GDP, which came in lower than expected at 6.3%. "Housing prices are going down, so people aren't making purchases," Roberts said. Rocky decade ahead. China's laundry list of issues point to a rocky decade ahead. From an unstable, debt-ridden property market to anti-business policies and demographic issues, Beijing has plenty to tackle if it hopes to match the same growth as decades past. For Dollar, he expects China to eke out 5% growth this year, as Beijing forecasts, but without financial or demographic reforms, growth could hover closer to 3% for the next decade.

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