Israel-Hamas Conflict puts China's Strategy of 'Balanced Diplomacy' in the Middle East at Risk

As a scholar who teaches classes on China's foreign policy, I believe that the Israel-Hamas war is posing the sternest test yet of President Xi Jinping's Middle East strategy - that to date has been centered around the concept of "Balanced diplomacy." Growing pro-Palestinian sentiment in China - and the country's historic sympathies in the region - suggest that if Xi is forced off the impartiality road, he will side with the Palestinians over the Israelis. Beijing's overall strategic vision for the Middle East is one in which U.S. influence is significantly reduced while China's is significantly enhanced. On Oct. 25, China used it veto power at the United Nations to block a U.S. resolution calling for a humanitarian pause on the grounds that it failed to call on Israel to lift is siege on Gaza. China is much more heavily dependent on trade with the numerous states across the Middle East and North Africa it has established economic ties than it is with Israel. Should geopolitical pressures push China to the point where it must decide between Israel and the Arab world, Beijing has powerful economic incentives to side with the latter. In countries across Africa, Latin America and beyond, the Palestinians' struggle against Israel is seen as akin to fighting colonization or resisting "Apartheid." Siding with Israel would, under that lens, put China on the side of the colonial oppressor. While China may not have altered its maps of the Middle East, its diplomats may well be looking at them and wondering if there is still room for balanced diplomacy.