China's forecast-beating economic data buys officials time to figure out fix

BEIJING, April 1 - China's $18.6 trillion economy has skirted some near-term downside risks as suggested by recent indicators, analysts said, buying officials more time to convince investors they can fire up a new growth engine for 2024 and the years ahead. Economic data over the January-February period and a factory owners survey for March offered relief to Chinese policymakers seeking to convince foreign investors they could rekindle the world's No.2 economy after it failed to post a sustainable recovery following Beijing abandoning strict COVID curbs in late 2022. Analysts and investors are cautious: while things might not be getting worse, unless officials can figure out how to get it to fire on all cylinders again, the market once seen as the engine of global growth will stall later in the year. Citi on Thursday raised its economic growth forecast for China for this year to 5.0% from 4.6%, citing "Recent positive data and policy delivery". Still, analysts question whether China can maintain growth and transform its economy at the same time. "Looking ahead, China may see a cyclical recovery to perhaps 3.0-3.5% growth in 2024," the New York-based research group known for its China coverage predicted in December. PROPERTY QUANDARY. Officials are confident China will hit its growth target of around 5% this year. Analysts warn officials are running out of time to come up with a new growth model because the latest bounce in the data was buoyed by the government injecting money into the economy and the Lunar New Year, which fell in February this year, giving consumer prices and retail sales data a leg-up.